Over the past year since March 2009, the Federal Reserve not so quietly
engaged in a major printing effort (of 1.75 Trillion dollars), while
concealing the fact that this monetization was required to keep
US economy afloat.
They use the term of “quantitative easing” to mask the truth for the general
public. Quantitative easing is printing money out of thin air. They also
directed the printing presses toward bailing out very sick US mortgage
market (mostly MBS), although there was also explicit monetization of
Explicit monetization of US treasuries by the Fed is almost equivalent to
default. However, US credit rating agencies continue to rate US sovereign
debt as AAA (surprise!)
It appears China, the largest holder of US sovereign debt, is finally
starting to “get it”. If China is serious about De-pegging from US
dollar, as pressured by US authorities, then we may see US
dollar plunge. For now Chinese currency is pegged to US dollar,
thus, Chinese buying is determined by the peg. Read more in this article in FT.
By Gerard Lyons
Published: April 27 2010 15:50 | Last updated: April 27 2010 15:50
There is a ticking time bomb under the dollar. When it explodes depends not just on the US economy
but also on policy actions in Beijing and Washington. Over the last year the Chinese have undermined
the dollar by the back-door, questioning it as a store of value and medium-of-exchange.
Although the Chinese are not advocating the renminbi as the alternative to the dollar this may be only
a matter of time. One needs to focus on what the Chinese do, as well as listen to what they say. A key
development is China’s encouragement of international use of the renminbi, although they prefer to call it invoicing.
This may be from a low starting point but one Chinese saying may be worth bearing in mind: “A march
of 10,000 miles begins with one small step”. Early signs are promising.
China is encouraging exporters to invoice in the renminbi and is setting up systems to allow trade
payments in renminbi. This make sense. China’s trade is soaring. New trade corridors may soon
require new means of payment. When the Chinese and Brazilian Presidents met last
year they agreed to use their own currencies to settle more of their bilateral trade, rather than
invoicing in dollars. Although viewed as symbolic, it is a sign of things to come.
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